Unlike jockeys in a real horse race; weather professionals jump from one weather model, to another one that seems to have a better chance of winning, and then back again — sometimes even straddling the field.
It’s all very scientific; but most of the accuracy comes after the event; not before.
60 years ago; people watched the TV weatherman who had a proven record of accurate predictions. Today science has bedecked a self-righteous certitude with a fog of “complex” patterns and ever-fluctuating “chances of” — that leaves you looking at the weather outside your window an hour before it appears in their “updated” predictions.
So remember; the next time you’re caught with your excuses down: Don’t change your story — just update it.